@incollection{KWW2008b,
    TITLE = {The Future of Census Coverage Surveys},
   AUTHOR = {Kenneth W. Wachter},
BOOKTITLE = {Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman},
   EDITOR = {Deborah Nolan and Terence Speed},
   SERIES = {IMS Collections},
   VOLUME = {2},
PUBLISHER = {Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
  ADDRESS = {Beachwood, OH},
    PAGES = {234--245},
     YEAR = {2008},
       ID = {info:doi/10.1214/193940307000000464},
 ABSTRACT = {A quarter-century of statistical research has shown that census
             coverage surveys, valuable as they are in offering a report card on
             each decennial census, do not provide usable estimates of
             geographical differences in coverage. The determining reason is the
             large number of ``doubly missing'' people missing both from the
             census enumeration and from coverage survey estimates. Future
             coverage surveys should be designed to meet achievable goals,
             foregoing efforts at spatial specificity. One implication is a
             sample size no more than about 30,000, setting free resources for
             controlling processing errors and investing in coverage
             improvement. Possible integration of coverage measurement with the
             American Community Survey would have many benefits and should be
             given careful consideration.},
   }

        

@article{KWW2008c,
    TITLE = {Age Structure Changes and Extraordinary Lifespan in Wild Medfly
             Populations},
   AUTHOR = {James R. Carey and Nikos T. Papadopoulous and Hans-Georg M"{u}ller
             and Byron I. Katsoyannos and Nikos A. Kouloussis and Jane-Ling Wang
             and Kenneth Wachter and Wei Yu and and Pablo Liedo},
  JOURNAL = {Aging Cell},
   VOLUME = {7},
    PAGES = {426--437},
     YEAR = {2008},
       ID = {info:doi/10.1111/j.1474-9726.2008.00390.x},
 ABSTRACT = {The main purpose of this study was to test the hypotheses that
             major changes in age structure occur in wild populations of the
             Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) and that a substantial fraction of
             individuals survive to middle age and beyond (> 3--4 weeks). We
             thus brought reference life tables and deconvolution models to bear
             on medfly mortality data gathered from a 3-year study of field-
             captured individuals that were monitored in the laboratory. The
             average time-to-death of captured females differed between sampling
             dates by 23.9, 22.7, and 37.0 days in the 2003, 2004, and 2005
             field seasons, respectively. These shifts in average times-to-death
             provided evidence of changes in population age structure. Estimates
             indicated that middle-aged medflies (> 30 days) were common in the
             population. A surprise in the study was the extraordinary longevity
             observed in field-captured medflies. For example, 19 captured
             females but no reference females survived in the laboratory for 140
             days or more, and 6 captured but no reference males survived in the
             laboratory for 170 days or more. This paper advances the study of
             aging in the wild by introducing a new method for estimating age
             structure in insect populations, demonstrating that major changes
             in age structure occur in field populations of insects, showing
             that middle-aged individuals are common in the wild, and revealing
             the extraordinary lifespans of wild-caught individuals due to their
             early life experience in the field.},
   }

        

@article{KWW2008d,
    TITLE = {Biodemography Comes of Age},
   AUTHOR = {Kenneth W. Wachter},
  JOURNAL = {Demographic Research},
   VOLUME = {19},
   NUMBER = {40},
    PAGES = {1501--1512},
      URL = {http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/40/},
    MONTH = {August},
     YEAR = {2008},
 ABSTRACT = {Biodemography has emerged and grown over the last fifteen years,
             with loyal and farsighted support from its patrons. As it enters
             what might be called its adolescence as a field, it faces
             challenges along with abounding opportunities. One challenge is to
             continue to generate knowledge that contributes to human health and
             well-being. A second is to insist on high standards of quality
             control within its cross-disciplinary environment. Opportunities
             appear in a variety of directions, including mathematical modeling,
             genomic analyses, and field studies of aging in the wild.},
   }

        

@unpublished{KWWload,
    TITLE = {Vital Rates and the Action of Mutation Accumulation},
   AUTHOR = {Kenneth W. Wachter and David R. Steinsaltz and Steven N. Evans},
       ID = {info:oai/arXiv.org:0808.3622},
     YEAR = {2008},
 ABSTRACT = {New models for evolutionary processes of mutation accumulation
             allow hypotheses about the age-specificity of mutational effects to
             be translated into predictions of heterogeneous population hazard
             functions. We apply these models to questions in the biodemography
             of longevity, including proposed explanations of Gompertz hazards
             and mortality plateaus, and use them to explore the possibility of
             melding evolutionary and functional models of aging.},
   }

        

@unpublished{KWWwalls,
    TITLE = {The Age-Specific Force of Natural Selection and Walls of Death},
   AUTHOR = {Kenneth W. Wachter and Steven N. Evans and David R. Steinsaltz},
       ID = {info:oai/arXiv.org:0807.0483},
     YEAR = {2008},
 ABSTRACT = {W.D. Hamilton's celebrated formula for the age-specific force of
             natural selection furnishes predictions for senescent mortality due
             to mutation accumulation, at the price of reliance on a linear
             approximation. Applying to Hamilton's setting the full non-linear
             demographic model for mutation accumulation of Evans et al. (2007),
             we find surprising differences. Non-linear interactions cause the
             collapse of Hamilton-style predictions in the most commonly studied
             case, refine predictions in other cases, and allow Walls of Death
             at ages before the end of reproduction. Haldane's Principle for
             genetic load has an exact but unfamiliar generalization.},
   }

        

@incollection{KWW2007,
    TITLE = {Methods for Census 2000 and Statistical Adjustments},
   AUTHOR = {David A. Freedman and Kenneth W. Wachter},
BOOKTITLE = {The SAGE Handbook of Social Science Methodology},
   EDITOR = {William Outhwaite and Stephen P. Turner},
PUBLISHER = {Sage Publications},
  ADDRESS = {London},
  CHAPTER = {13},
    PAGES = {232--245},
     YEAR = {2007},
     ISBN = {1412901197,9781412901192},
   }

        

@incollection{KWW2008a,
    TITLE = {Introduction},
   AUTHOR = {James Vaupel and Kenneth Wachter and Maxine Weinstein},
BOOKTITLE = {Biosocial Surveys},
   EDITOR = {Maxine Weinstein and James W. Vaupel and Kenneth W. Wachter},
PUBLISHER = {National Academy Press},
  ADDRESS = {Washington, DC},
    PAGES = {1--11},
     YEAR = {2007},
     ISBN = {0309108675,9780309108676},
   }

        

@unpublished{KWWdiploid,
    TITLE = {A mutation-selection model for general genotypes with recombination},
   AUTHOR = {Steven N. Evans and David R. Steinsaltz and Kenneth W. Wachter},
       ID = {info:oai/arXiv.org:q-bio.PE/0609046},
     YEAR = {2007},
 ABSTRACT = {A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation-
             selection balance in a infinite-population infinite-sites setting
             sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in full age-
             specific demographic schedules. An earlier work by the same authors
             presented a haploid model -- without genetic recombination -- of
             similar scope. This work complements that model, adding genetic
             recombination, based on a well-known general discrete-population
             genetic model of N. Barton and M. Turelli. The model with
             recombination is a flow on Poisson intensities, substantially
             different from the haploid model. It is shown that the new model
             arises from the haploid model when recombination is added, in the
             limit as generations per unit time go to infinity, and selection
             strength and mutation per generation go to 0.},
   }

        

@article{KWW2006a,
    TITLE = {Understanding Mortality Rate Deceleration and Heterogeneity},
   AUTHOR = {David R. Steinsaltz and Kenneth W. Wachter},
  JOURNAL = {Mathematical Population Studies},
   VOLUME = {13},
   NUMBER = {1},
    PAGES = {19--37},
     YEAR = {2006},
       ID = {info:doi/10.1080/08898480500452117},
 ABSTRACT = {Generic relationships between heterogeneity in population frailty
             and flattening of aggregate population hazard functions at extreme
             ages are drawn from classical mathematical results on the limiting
             behavior of Laplace transforms. In particular, it shows that the
             population hazard function converges to a constant precisely when
             the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity in initial mortalities
             behaves asymptotically as a polynomial near zero.},
   }

        

@article{KWW2006b,
    TITLE = {Relationships between Period and Cohort Life Expectancy: Gaps and
             Lags},
   AUTHOR = {Joshua R. Goldstein and Kenneth W. Wachter},
  JOURNAL = {Population Studies},
   VOLUME = {60},
   NUMBER = {3},
    PAGES = {257--269},
    MONTH = {November},
     YEAR = {2006},
       ID = {info:doi/10.1080/00324720600895876},
 ABSTRACT = {This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for
             regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the
             experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady
             improvement in mortality. We find that current period life
             expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some
             40-50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of
             life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our
             findings augment Ryder's classic results on period-cohort
             translation.},
   }

        

@article{STEINSALTZ:0000:AGMOMB,
   AUTHOR = {Steinsaltz, David R. and Evans, Steven N. and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
    TITLE = {A generalized model of mutation-selection balance with applications
             to aging},
  JOURNAL = {Advances in Applied Mathematics},
   VOLUME = {35},
   NUMBER = {1},
    PAGES = {16--33},
     YEAR = {2005},
      URL = {http://www.mast.queensu.ca/~steinsaltz/papers/ms.pdf},
       ID = {info:oai/arXiv.org:q-bio.PE/0403002,
             info:doi/10.1016/j.aam.2004.09.003},
 ABSTRACT = {A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation--
             selection balance in a haploid infinite-population infinite-sites
             setting sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in
             full age-specific demographic schedules. The model accommodates
             epistatic as well as additive selective costs. Closed form
             characterizations are obtained for solutions in finite time, along
             with proofs of convergence to stationary distributions and a proof
             of the uniqueness of solutions in a restricted case. Examples are
             given of applications to the biodemography of aging.},
   }

        

@article{KWW2005b,
    TITLE = {Spatial Demography},
   AUTHOR = {Kenneth W. Wachter},
  JOURNAL = {Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. Unit. States Am.},
   VOLUME = {102},
   NUMBER = {43},
    PAGES = {15299--15300},
    MONTH = {October},
     YEAR = {2005},
       ID = {info:doi/10.1073/pnas.0508155102},
     NOTE = {No abstract. Introduction to this issue of PNAS},
   }

        

@article{KWW2005c,
    TITLE = {Tempo and its Tribulations},
   AUTHOR = {Kenneth W. Wachter},
  JOURNAL = {Demographic Research},
   VOLUME = {13},
   NUMBER = {9},
    PAGES = {201--222},
    MONTH = {November},
     YEAR = {2005},
 ABSTRACT = {Bongaarts and Feeney offer alternatives to period life expectancy
             with a set of demographic measures equivalent to each other under a
             Proportionality Assumption. Under this assumption, we show that the
             measures are given by exponentially weighted moving averages of
             earlier values of period life expectancy. They are indices of
             mortality conditions in the recent past. The period life expectancy
             is an index of current mortality conditions. The difference is a
             difference between past and present, not a ``tempo distortion'' in
             the present. In contrast, the Bongaarts-Feeney tempo-adjusted Total
             Fertility Rate is a measure of current fertility conditions, which
             can be understood in terms of a process of birth-age
             standardization.},
      URL = {http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol13/9},
   }

        

@book{WACHTER:2003:OHFBIB,
    TITLE = {Offspring: Human Fertility Behavior in Biodemographic Perspective},
     ISBN = {030908718X, 9780309087186},
   EDITOR = {Wachter, Kenneth and Bulatao, Rodolfo A.},
     YEAR = {2003},
PUBLISHER = {National Academies Press},
  ADDRESS = {Washington, DC},
      URL = {http://www.nap.edu/books/030908718X/html},
   }

        

@article{WACHTER:2003:TPPAFO,
   AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W.},
    TITLE = {The past, present, and future of demography and the role of the
             {M}ax {P}lanck {I}nstitute for {D}emographic {R}esearch},
  JOURNAL = {Demographic Research},
     ISSN = {1435-9871},
   VOLUME = {9},
     YEAR = {2003},
      URL = {http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol9/4},
 ABSTRACT = {Demography, within the memories of those now living,has been shaped
             by a few outstanding centers,the Institut National d'Etudes
             Demographiques,the Cambridge Group for the History of Population
             and Social Structure, and the Princeton Office of Population
             Research. The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, whose
             new building received a festive dedication on 31 March 2003, now
             joins this distinguished family.},
   }

        

@inbook{WACHTER:2003:SPT,
   AUTHOR = {Wachter, K.W.},
    TITLE = {Stochastic population theory},
   EDITOR = {Demeny, Paul G. and McNicoll, Geoffrey},
BOOKTITLE = {Encyclopedia of Population},
     ISBN = {0028656776, 9780028656779},
     YEAR = {2003},
PUBLISHER = {Macmillan Reference},
  ADDRESS = {New York, NY},
   VOLUME = {2},
    PAGES = {921--924},
   }

        

@incollection{WACHTER:2003:HCALSP,
   AUTHOR = {Wachter, K.W.},
    TITLE = {Hazard curves and life span prospects},
   EDITOR = {Carey, James R. and Tuljapurkar, Shripad},
BOOKTITLE = {Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, and Demographic Perspectives},
     ISBN = {0878341110, 978-0878341115},
     YEAR = {2003},
PUBLISHER = {Population Council},
  ADDRESS = {New York, NY},
    PAGES = {270--291},
     NOTE = {This book is a supplement to Population and Development Review,
             Vol. 29, 2003},
      URL = {http://www.popcouncil.org/pdfs/pdrsupplements/vol29_lifespan/wachter_pp270-291.pdf},
   }

        

@incollection{FREEDMAN:2003:OTLOIT:MR1993596,
   AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
    TITLE = {On the likelihood of improving the accuracy of the census through
             statistical adjustment},
   EDITOR = {Goldstein, Darlene R.},
BOOKTITLE = {Science and Statistics: A {F}estschrift for {T}erry {S}peed},
     ISBN = {0940600560, 9780940600560},
   SERIES = {IMS Lecture Notes---Monograph Series},
   VOLUME = {40},
     YEAR = {2003},
    PAGES = {197--230},
PUBLISHER = {Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
  ADDRESS = {Beachwood, OH},
  MRCLASS = {62-06 (00B30)},
       ID = {info:mr/MR1993596 (2004d:62008)},
 ABSTRACT = {In this article, we sketch procedures for taking the census, making
             adjustments, and evaluating the results. Despite what you read in
             the newspapers, the census is remarkably accurate. Statistical
             adjustment is unlikely to improve on the census, because adjustment
             can easily put in more error than it takes out. Indeed, error rates
             in the adjustment turn out to be comparable to errors in the
             census. The data suggest a strong geographical pattern to such
             errors, even after controlling for demography---which contradicts a
             basic premise of adjustment. The complex demographic controls built
             into the adjustment mechanism turn out to be counter-productive.
             Proponents of adjustment have cited \u201closs function analysis
             \u201d to compare the accuracy of the census and adjustment,
             generally to the advantage of the latter. However, the chosen
             analyses make assumptions that are highly stylized, and quite
             favorable to adjustment. With more realistic assumptions, loss
             function analysis is neutral, or favors the census. At the heart of
             the adjustment mechanism, there is a large sample survey---the post
             enumeration survey. The size of the survey cannot be justified. The
             adjustment process now consumes too large a share of the Census
             Bureau's scarce resources, which should be reallocated to other
             Bureau programs.},
   }

        

@incollection{WACHTER:2003:BFAFF,
   AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W.},
    TITLE = {Biodemography of Fertility and Family Formation},
   EDITOR = {Wachter, Kenneth and Bulatao, Rodolfo A.},
BOOKTITLE = {Offspring: Human Fertility Behavior in Biodemographic Perspective},
     ISBN = {030908718X},
     YEAR = {2003},
    PAGES = {1--17},
PUBLISHER = {National Academies Press},
  ADDRESS = {Washington, DC},
      URL = {http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10654&page=1},
   }

        

@article{WACHTER:2003:PBHIOA,
   AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Knodel, John E. and VanLandingham, Mark},
    TITLE = {Parental bereavement: heterogeneous impacts of {AIDS} in {T}hailand},
  JOURNAL = {J. Econometrics},
 FJOURNAL = {Journal of Econometrics},
     ISSN = {0304-4076},
   VOLUME = {112},
   NUMBER = {1},
     YEAR = {2003},
    PAGES = {193--206},
    CODEN = {JECMB6},
  MRCLASS = {Database Expansion Item},
ZBLABSTRACT = {Over the coming decades in Thailand, aging parents whose adult
             children sicken with AIDS will bear burdens of caregiving and loss.
             Using demographic microsimulations, we show that the new, lower
             projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic still imply that $8\%$ of
             Thais over the age of 50 in 1995 will lose one or more children to
             AIDS before their own deaths. The proportion of all losses which
             are multiple losses can vary from $12\%$ to $33\%$ under a range of
             assumptions about plausible family-to-family heterogeneity in risks
             of infection.},
 ZBLCLASS = {92D30;91D20},
       ID = {info:zbl/1008.92033, info:mr/MR1963238,
             info:doi/10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00160-4},
   }