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Personal bibliography of
Kenneth Willcox Wachter
[ CalNetDS
- MGP
- MathScinet
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Total: 97 works
-
Kenneth W. Wachter, John E. Knodel and Mark J. VanLandingham
AIDS and the elderly of Thailand: Projecting familial impacts
Demography 39, 25--41 (2002).
[Link]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
[Editorial notes]
Abstract: We apply aggregate demographic analysis and computer microsimulation to project the number of older Thais who will lose children to AIDS during their own lifetimes and to assess their involvement with ill children through caregiving and coresidence. Parental bereavements from AIDS are predicted to peak at around 80,000 per year between 2003 and 2007. Despite an HIV prevalence of only $2\%, 13\%$ of Thais who were over age 50 as of 1995 are likely to experience the loss of at least one adult child to AIDS, and $12\%$ of them will lose multiple children. The chance of losing an adult child during one's lifetime will be $70\%$ higher than if there were no AIDS epidemic. The impacts of the worldwide epidemic of HIV-AIDS extend far beyond the infected individuals themselves. Demographic disruptions, recognized early by Palloni and Lee (1992), loom ever larger. A host of emotional, economic, social, and physical strains on family members have been surveyed by Bloom and Godwin (1997), Bor and Elford (1994), and Patel (1995). Orphanhood and the plight of children whose parents are living with or dying of AIDS are attracting particular attention...
@article{WACHTER:2002:AATEOT,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Knodel, John E. and VanLandingham, Mark J.},
TITLE = {AIDS and the elderly of {T}hailand: Projecting familial impacts},
JOURNAL = {Demography},
VOLUME = {39},
YEAR = {2002},
PAGES = {25--41},
URL = {http://muse.jhu.edu/login?uri=/journals/demography/v039/39.1wachter.html},
ABSTRACT = {We apply aggregate demographic analysis and computer
microsimulation to project the number of older Thais who will lose
children to AIDS during their own lifetimes and to assess their
involvement with ill children through caregiving and coresidence.
Parental bereavements from AIDS are predicted to peak at around
80,000 per year between 2003 and 2007. Despite an HIV prevalence of
only $2\%, 13\%$ of Thais who were over age 50 as of 1995 are
likely to experience the loss of at least one adult child to AIDS,
and $12\%$ of them will lose multiple children. The chance of
losing an adult child during one's lifetime will be $70\%$ higher
than if there were no AIDS epidemic. The impacts of the worldwide
epidemic of HIV-AIDS extend far beyond the infected individuals
themselves. Demographic disruptions, recognized early by Palloni
and Lee (1992), loom ever larger. A host of emotional, economic,
social, and physical strains on family members have been surveyed
by Bloom and Godwin (1997), Bor and Elford (1994), and Patel
(1995). Orphanhood and the plight of children whose parents are
living with or dying of AIDS are attracting particular attention...},
EDNOTES = {<abpart>},
}
-
David Freedman and Kenneth W. Wachter
Census adjustment: Statistical promise or illusion?
Society 39, 26--33 (2001).
without abstract
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
@article{FREEDMAN:2001:CASPOI,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {Census adjustment: Statistical promise or illusion?},
JOURNAL = {Society},
VOLUME = {39},
YEAR = {2001},
PAGES = {26--33},
ID = {info:doi/10.1007/BF02712617},
NOTE = {without abstract},
}
-
David A. Freedman, Philip Stark and Kenneth W. Wachter
A probability model for census adjustment
Mathematical Population Studies 9, 165--180 (2001).
[GScholar?]
[ZM]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: The census can be adjusted using capture-recapture techniques: capture in the census, recapture in a special Post Enumeration Survey (PES) done after the census. The population is estimated using the Dual System Estimator (DSE). Estimates are made separately for demographic groups called post strata; adjustment factors are then applied to these demographic groups within small geographic areas. We offer a probability model for this process, in which several sources of error can be distinguished. In this model, correlation bias arises from behavioral differences between persons counted in the census and persons missed by the census. The first group may on the whole be more likely to respond to the PES: if so, the DSE will be systematically too low, and that is an example of correlation bias. Correlation bias is distinguished from heterogeneity, which occurs if the census has a higher capture rate in some geographic areas than others. Finally, ratio estimator bias and variance are considered. The objective is to clarify the probabilistic foundations of the DSE, and the definitions of certain terms widely used in discussing that estimator.
@article{FREEDMAN:2001:APMFCA:0990.91050,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Stark, Philip and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {A probability model for census adjustment},
JOURNAL = {Mathematical Population Studies},
ISSN = {0889-8480},
VOLUME = {9},
YEAR = {2001},
PAGES = {165--180},
ZBLABSTRACT = {The census can be adjusted using capture-recapture techniques:
capture in the census, recapture in a special Post Enumeration
Survey (PES) done after the census. The population is estimated
using the Dual System Estimator (DSE). Estimates are made
separately for demographic groups called post strata; adjustment
factors are then applied to these demographic groups within small
geographic areas. We offer a probability model for this process, in
which several sources of error can be distinguished. In this model,
correlation bias arises from behavioral differences between persons
counted in the census and persons missed by the census. The first
group may on the whole be more likely to respond to the PES: if so,
the DSE will be systematically too low, and that is an example of
correlation bias. Correlation bias is distinguished from
heterogeneity, which occurs if the census has a higher capture rate
in some geographic areas than others. Finally, ratio estimator bias
and variance are considered. The objective is to clarify the
probabilistic foundations of the DSE, and the definitions of
certain terms widely used in discussing that estimator.},
ZBLCLASS = {91D20},
ID = {info:zbl/0990.91050},
}
-
K.W. Wachter
Biosocial opportunities for surveys
In Cells and Surveys: Should Biological Measures Be Included in Social Science Research? (Caleb E. Finch, James W. Vaupel and Kevin Kinsella, editors), 329--336, National Academies Press. Washington, DC (2001).
[Link]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
@incollection{WACHTER:2001:BOFS,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Biosocial opportunities for surveys},
EDITOR = {Finch, Caleb E. and Vaupel, James W. and Kinsella, Kevin},
BOOKTITLE = {Cells and Surveys: Should Biological Measures Be Included in Social
Science Research?},
ISBN = {0309071992},
YEAR = {2001},
PUBLISHER = {National Academies Press},
ADDRESS = {Washington, DC},
PAGES = {329--336},
URL = {http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=9995&page=329},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter and David A. Freedman
Measuring local heterogeneity with 1990 census data
Demographic Research 3 (No. 10) (2000).
[Link]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: A sample covering 204,394 blocks from the 1990 U.S. Census permits measurement of residual heterogeneity from local area to local area after controlling by stratification for demographic characteristics such as race, ethnicity, age, sex as well as geographic characteristics such as region and place-type. The local areas have populations on the order of 10,000 people. The variables studied are four indices of enumeration difficulty. The results show that variance due to heterogeneity from area to area is comparable to (if not larger than) variance from stratum to stratum and can be expected to dominate sampling variance---especially with samples as large as the ones used in the U.S. Census Bureau's Post-Enumeration Surveys. These findings constrain the viable estimation strategies that could be employed for local tallies in the U.S. 2000 Census.
@article{WACHTER:2000:MLHWCD,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Freedman, David A.},
TITLE = {Measuring local heterogeneity with 1990 census data},
JOURNAL = {Demographic Research},
VOLUME = {3},
NUMBER = {10},
YEAR = {2000},
URL = {http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol3/10/},
ABSTRACT = {A sample covering 204,394 blocks from the 1990 U.S. Census permits
measurement of residual heterogeneity from local area to local area
after controlling by stratification for demographic characteristics
such as race, ethnicity, age, sex as well as geographic
characteristics such as region and place-type. The local areas have
populations on the order of 10,000 people. The variables studied
are four indices of enumeration difficulty. The results show that
variance due to heterogeneity from area to area is comparable to
(if not larger than) variance from stratum to stratum and can be
expected to dominate sampling variance---especially with samples as
large as the ones used in the U.S. Census Bureau's Post-Enumeration
Surveys. These findings constrain the viable estimation strategies
that could be employed for local tallies in the U.S. 2000 Census.},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter and David A. Freedman
The fifth cell: Correlation bias in U.S. census adjustment
Evaluation Review 24, 191--212 (2000).
[Link]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: One form of error that can affect census adjustments is correlation bias, reflecting people who are doubly missing--from the census and from the adjusted counts as well. This article presents a method for estimating the total national number of doubly-missing people and their distribution by race and sex. Application to the 1990 U.S. census adjustment leads to an estimate of 3 million doubly- missing people. Correlation bias is likely to be a serious problem for census adjustment in 2000. The methods of this article are well suited for measuring its magnitude.
@article{WACHTER:2000:TFCCBI,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Freedman, David A.},
TITLE = {The fifth cell: Correlation bias in U.S. census adjustment},
JOURNAL = {Evaluation Review},
VOLUME = {24},
YEAR = {2000},
PAGES = {191--212},
URL = {http://erx.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/24/2/191},
ABSTRACT = {One form of error that can affect census adjustments is correlation
bias, reflecting people who are doubly missing--from the census and
from the adjusted counts as well. This article presents a method
for estimating the total national number of doubly-missing people
and their distribution by race and sex. Application to the 1990
U.S. census adjustment leads to an estimate of 3 million doubly-
missing people. Correlation bias is likely to be a serious problem
for census adjustment in 2000. The methods of this article are well
suited for measuring its magnitude.},
}
-
K.W. Wachter
Grade of membership models in low dimensions: Geometry and robustness
Statistical Papers 40, 439--457 (1999).
October 1999
[GScholar?]
[ZM]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Grade of Membership (GoM) Models have always been presented by their inventors as statistical applications of fuzzy set theory. This paper develops an alternative formulation, recasting GoM as a geometric dimensionality-reduction technique in terms of an underlying family of metrics, exposing a close relationship with Principal Components. The geometric viewpoint facilitates intuitive understanding and guides an investigation into the robustness of GoM estimates to violations of assumptions, with test cases drawn from the National Survey of Families and Households. Analysis is restricted to visualizable, low-dimensional cases with two pure types and 3 to 9 dichotomous variables, and to ``conditional'' GoM, the version more commonly used but less commonly studied. In these low-dimensional settings, I find GoM to be a successful technique for recovering an underlying gradient among individuals when such a gradient is actually present. GoM is only moderately sensitive to moderate violations in its assumptions. In the cases studied, GoM solutions turn out to be remarkably close to Principal Component solutions.
@article{WACHTER:1999:GOMMIL:0938.62066,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Grade of membership models in low dimensions: Geometry and
robustness},
JOURNAL = {Statistical Papers},
ISSN = {0932-5026},
VOLUME = {40},
YEAR = {1999},
PAGES = {439--457},
NOTE = {October 1999},
ZBLABSTRACT = {Grade of Membership (GoM) Models have always been presented by
their inventors as statistical applications of fuzzy set theory.
This paper develops an alternative formulation, recasting GoM as a
geometric dimensionality-reduction technique in terms of an
underlying family of metrics, exposing a close relationship with
Principal Components. The geometric viewpoint facilitates intuitive
understanding and guides an investigation into the robustness of
GoM estimates to violations of assumptions, with test cases drawn
from the National Survey of Families and Households. Analysis is
restricted to visualizable, low-dimensional cases with two pure
types and 3 to 9 dichotomous variables, and to ``conditional'' GoM,
the version more commonly used but less commonly studied. In these
low-dimensional settings, I find GoM to be a successful technique
for recovering an underlying gradient among individuals when such a
gradient is actually present. GoM is only moderately sensitive to
moderate violations in its assumptions. In the cases studied, GoM
solutions turn out to be remarkably close to Principal Component
solutions.},
ZBLCLASS = {62H25;62H99;62P25},
ID = {info:zbl/0938.62066},
}
-
Lawrence D. Brown, Morris L. Eaton, David A. Freedman, Stephen P. Klein, Richard A. Olshen, Kenneth W. Wachter, Martin T. Wells and Donald Ylvisaker
Statistical controversies in census 2000
Jurimetrics Journal 39, 347--375 (1999).
[.pdf]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: This paper discusses Census 2000, focusing on sampling techniques for adjustment. Experience with similar adjustment methods in 1980 and 1990 suggests that the design for Census 2000 is quite risky. The use of sampling to obtain population counts for apportionment was rejected by the Supreme Court as violating the Census Act. Statistical adjustments for the purpose of redistricting may or may not be constitutional.
@article{BROWN:1999:SCIC,
AUTHOR = {Brown, Lawrence D. and Eaton, Morris L. and Freedman, David A. and
Klein, Stephen P. and Olshen, Richard A. and Wachter, Kenneth W.
and Wells, Martin T. and Ylvisaker, Donald},
TITLE = {Statistical controversies in census 2000},
JOURNAL = {Jurimetrics Journal},
VOLUME = {39},
YEAR = {1999},
PAGES = {347--375},
URL = {http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~census/537.pdf},
ABSTRACT = {This paper discusses Census 2000, focusing on sampling techniques
for adjustment. Experience with similar adjustment methods in 1980
and 1990 suggests that the design for Census 2000 is quite risky.
The use of sampling to obtain population counts for apportionment
was rejected by the Supreme Court as violating the Census Act.
Statistical adjustments for the purpose of redistricting may or may
not be constitutional.},
}
-
K.W. Wachter
Evolutionary demographic models for mortality plateaus
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 96 (No. 18), 10544--10547 (1999).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Plateaus in the age pattern of hazard functions at extreme ages have been discovered in large populations of medflies, Drosophila, nematodes, and people. Mueller and Rose [(1996) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 93, 15249--15253] have proposed several age-structured demographic models to represent effects of mutation accumulation and antagonistic pleiotropy on randomly evolving schedules of demographic rates. They assert that \u201cevolutionary theory [as embodied in their models] predicts late-life mortality plateaus.\u201d This paper defines a class of Markovian models that includes those of Mueller and Rose and obtains a characterization of the possible limiting states. For the basic model, the result implies that schedules with late-life mortality plateaus above a minimal threshold are not limiting states. The models fail, but not for reasons previously conjectured. Transient states, visited early by the process, do display mortality plateaus. Other models from this class may have a role to play in reconciling observed plateaus with evolutionary theory.
@article{WACHTER:1999:EDMFMP:10.1073/pnas.96.18.10544,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Evolutionary demographic models for mortality plateaus},
JOURNAL = {Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. Unit. States Am.},
FJOURNAL = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United
States of America},
VOLUME = {96},
NUMBER = {18},
YEAR = {1999},
PAGES = {10544--10547},
ID = {info:doi/10.1073/pnas.96.18.10544},
ABSTRACT = {Plateaus in the age pattern of hazard functions at extreme ages
have been discovered in large populations of medflies, Drosophila,
nematodes, and people. Mueller and Rose [(1996) Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA 93, 15249--15253] have proposed several age-structured
demographic models to represent effects of mutation accumulation
and antagonistic pleiotropy on randomly evolving schedules of
demographic rates. They assert that \u201cevolutionary theory [as
embodied in their models] predicts late-life mortality
plateaus.\u201d This paper defines a class of Markovian models that
includes those of Mueller and Rose and obtains a characterization
of the possible limiting states. For the basic model, the result
implies that schedules with late-life mortality plateaus above a
minimal threshold are not limiting states. The models fail, but not
for reasons previously conjectured. Transient states, visited early
by the process, do display mortality plateaus. Other models from
this class may have a role to play in reconciling observed plateaus
with evolutionary theory.},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter and Caleb E. Finch, editors
Between Zeus and the Salmon: The Biodemography of Longevity
National Academies Press. Washington, DC (1997).
[Link]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
@book{WACHTER:1997:BZATST,
TITLE = {Between Zeus and the Salmon: The Biodemography of Longevity},
ISBN = {0309057876},
EDITOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Finch, Caleb E.},
YEAR = {1997},
PUBLISHER = {National Academies Press},
ADDRESS = {Washington, DC},
URL = {http://www.nap.edu/books/0309057876/html},
}
-
K.W. Wachter
Kinship resources for the elderly
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 352 (No. 1363), 1811--1817 (1997).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: As population ageing strains social insurance systems, cohorts whose own fertility was low will be reaching elderly status, leaving close biological kin in short supply. However, there is a countervailing trend, inasmuch as burgeoning divorce, remarriage and family blending have expanded the numbers and varieties of step-kin and other non-standard kinship ties. Methods of computer microsimulation in conjunction with richer sample surveys can help us to foresee the contours of kin numbers and kinship relations in the future. Prime areas include the likely frequency of kin- deprived elderly, the overlap with economic deprivation and the interaction between kin frequency and intensity of contact. Step- ties may be weaker but nonetheless critical in raising the probability of at least one compatible member with whom one can choose to maintain contact and rely on. Kinship networks extended through half- and step-links, by stretching across racial and economic lines, may promote social cohesion.
@article{WACHTER:1997:KRFTE:10.1098/rstb.1997.0166,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Kinship resources for the elderly},
JOURNAL = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B},
ISSN = {0962-8436, 1471-2970 (electronic)},
VOLUME = {352},
NUMBER = {1363},
YEAR = {1997},
PAGES = {1811--1817},
ID = {info:doi/10.1098/rstb.1997.0166},
ABSTRACT = {As population ageing strains social insurance systems, cohorts
whose own fertility was low will be reaching elderly status,
leaving close biological kin in short supply. However, there is a
countervailing trend, inasmuch as burgeoning divorce, remarriage
and family blending have expanded the numbers and varieties of
step-kin and other non-standard kinship ties. Methods of computer
microsimulation in conjunction with richer sample surveys can help
us to foresee the contours of kin numbers and kinship relations in
the future. Prime areas include the likely frequency of kin-
deprived elderly, the overlap with economic deprivation and the
interaction between kin frequency and intensity of contact. Step-
ties may be weaker but nonetheless critical in raising the
probability of at least one compatible member with whom one can
choose to maintain contact and rely on. Kinship networks extended
through half- and step-links, by stretching across racial and
economic lines, may promote social cohesion.},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter, Debra Blackwell and Eugene A. Hammel
Testing the validity of kinship microsimulation
Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modeling 26 (No. 6), 89--104 (1997).
[GScholar?]
[ZM] [DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Computer microsimulation is capable of generating detailed reconstructions and forecasts of the numbers of living kin that members of a population have. The available detail, specificity, and consistency of vital rates for the past and the accuracy of vital rates projected for the future necessarily limit the accuracy of the kinship estimates that can be produced.\par This study is an external validity test of {\it J. Reeves'} [A statistical analysis and projection of the effects of divorce on future U.S. kinship structure. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. California/Berkeley (1982)] reconstruction and forecast of U.S. kin counts with the SOCSIM microsimulation program. The external standard is provided by estimates from the 1987-88 wave of the National Survey of Families and Households, the first detailed information on numbers and ages of kin for the United States. We compare forecasts with estimates for average numbers of living grandchildren, living full-siblings, and living half-siblings as functions of age. We find remarkably close agreement for some of the predictions, along with several instances of systematic discrepancies. The discrepancies most likely stem from errors in the forecasts rather than in the survey estimates. Interacting rather than isolable errors appear to be responsible. Our validity tests provide a basis for qualified faith in the effectiveness of kinship microsimulation.
@article{WACHTER:1997:TTVOKM,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Blackwell, Debra and Hammel, Eugene A.},
TITLE = {Testing the validity of kinship microsimulation},
JOURNAL = {Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modeling},
ISSN = {0895-7177},
VOLUME = {26},
NUMBER = {6},
YEAR = {1997},
PAGES = {89--104},
ZBLABSTRACT = {Computer microsimulation is capable of generating detailed
reconstructions and forecasts of the numbers of living kin that
members of a population have. The available detail, specificity,
and consistency of vital rates for the past and the accuracy of
vital rates projected for the future necessarily limit the accuracy
of the kinship estimates that can be produced.\par This study is an
external validity test of {\it J. Reeves'} [A statistical analysis
and projection of the effects of divorce on future U.S. kinship
structure. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. California/Berkeley (1982)]
reconstruction and forecast of U.S. kin counts with the SOCSIM
microsimulation program. The external standard is provided by
estimates from the 1987-88 wave of the National Survey of Families
and Households, the first detailed information on numbers and ages
of kin for the United States. We compare forecasts with estimates
for average numbers of living grandchildren, living full-siblings,
and living half-siblings as functions of age. We find remarkably
close agreement for some of the predictions, along with several
instances of systematic discrepancies. The discrepancies most
likely stem from errors in the forecasts rather than in the survey
estimates. Interacting rather than isolable errors appear to be
responsible. Our validity tests provide a basis for qualified faith
in the effectiveness of kinship microsimulation.},
ZBLCLASS = {91D20},
ID = {info:zbl/0884.92034, info:doi/10.1016/S0895-7177(97)00172-6},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter and Caleb E. Finch
Between Zeus and the Salmon: Introduction
In Between Zeus and the Salmon: The Biodemography of Longevity (Kenneth W. Wachter and Caleb E. Finch, editors), 1--16, National Academies Press. Washington, DC (1997).
[Link]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
@incollection{WACHTER:1997:BZATSI,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Finch, Caleb E.},
TITLE = {Between Zeus and the Salmon: Introduction},
EDITOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Finch, Caleb E.},
BOOKTITLE = {Between Zeus and the Salmon: The Biodemography of Longevity},
ISBN = {0309057876},
YEAR = {1997},
PUBLISHER = {National Academies Press},
ADDRESS = {Washington, DC},
PAGES = {1--16},
URL = {http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5740&page=1},
}
-
E.A. Hammel and K.W. Wachter
Evaluating the Slavonian census of 1698: Part II: A microsimulation test and extension of the evidence
European Journal of Population 12, 295--326 (1996).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: An adjusted 17th C. census based on critical reading of the historical text is the basis for indirect estimation of uncounted persons. The census states no ages and excludes many categories of household residents. Microsimulation based on historically and ethnographically plausible rates and household formation scenarios produces simulated households that match the observable portions of households in the adjusted census. Microsimulation results permit estimation of the uncounted population, of the kinship and age composition of households under extant frontier conditions, and the probable future composition of households as the frontier stabilized and land shortage began to exert pressure for greater density and household complexity.
@article{HAMMEL:1996:ETSCOP,
AUTHOR = {Hammel, E.A. and Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Evaluating the {S}lavonian census of 1698: Part II: A
microsimulation test and extension of the evidence},
JOURNAL = {European Journal of Population},
VOLUME = {12},
YEAR = {1996},
PAGES = {295--326},
ID = {info:doi/10.1007/BF01796911},
ABSTRACT = {An adjusted 17th C. census based on critical reading of the
historical text is the basis for indirect estimation of uncounted
persons. The census states no ages and excludes many categories of
household residents. Microsimulation based on historically and
ethnographically plausible rates and household formation scenarios
produces simulated households that match the observable portions of
households in the adjusted census. Microsimulation results permit
estimation of the uncounted population, of the kinship and age
composition of households under extant frontier conditions, and the
probable future composition of households as the frontier
stabilized and land shortage began to exert pressure for greater
density and household complexity.},
}
-
David A. Freedman and Kenneth W. Wachter
Planning for the census in the year 2000
Evaluation Review 20, 355--377 (1996).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Considering the difficulties, the Census Bureau does a remarkably good job at counting people. There are two current techniques for evaluating or adjusting the census: (a) demographic analysis uses administrative records to make independent population estimates, which can be compared to census counts; (b) datafrom an independent sample survey can be used to estimate population coverage. If there is a large undercount, these techniques may be accurate enough for adjustment. With a small undercount, it is unlikely that current adjustment methodologies can improve on the census; instead, adjustment could easily degrade the accuracy of the data. This article reviews plans for Census 2000, including proposals for adjustment, in the light of past experience.
@article{FREEDMAN:1996:PFTCIT,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {Planning for the census in the year 2000},
JOURNAL = {Evaluation Review},
VOLUME = {20},
YEAR = {1996},
PAGES = {355--377},
ID = {info:doi/10.1177/0193841X9602000401},
ABSTRACT = {Considering the difficulties, the Census Bureau does a remarkably
good job at counting people. There are two current techniques for
evaluating or adjusting the census: (a) demographic analysis uses
administrative records to make independent population estimates,
which can be compared to census counts; (b) datafrom an independent
sample survey can be used to estimate population coverage. If there
is a large undercount, these techniques may be accurate enough for
adjustment. With a small undercount, it is unlikely that current
adjustment methodologies can improve on the census; instead,
adjustment could easily degrade the accuracy of the data. This
article reviews plans for Census 2000, including proposals for
adjustment, in the light of past experience.},
}
-
E.A. Hammel and K.W. Wachter
Evaluating the Slavonian census of 1698: Part I: Structure and meaning
European Journal of Population 12, 145--166 (1996).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Microsimulation, other demographic tools, and evidence of history and ethnography are used to evaluate an important 17th century household census. Linguistic, ethnographic, and internal evidence allow adjustment of anomalies in census categories. Microsimulation based on historically and ethnographically plausible rates and household formation scenarios produces simulated households in accord with those of the adjusted census. Results permit estimation of the true population of the region, of the kinship and age composition of households under frontier conditions, and the probable future composition of households as the frontier stabilized and land shortage began to exert pressure for greater density and household complexity. Part I concentrates on historical, ethnographic, and linguistic evidence.
@article{HAMMEL:1996:ETSCOP,
AUTHOR = {Hammel, E.A. and Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Evaluating the {S}lavonian census of 1698: Part I: Structure and
meaning},
JOURNAL = {European Journal of Population},
VOLUME = {12},
YEAR = {1996},
PAGES = {145--166},
ID = {info:doi/10.1007/BF01797081},
ABSTRACT = {Microsimulation, other demographic tools, and evidence of history
and ethnography are used to evaluate an important 17th century
household census. Linguistic, ethnographic, and internal evidence
allow adjustment of anomalies in census categories. Microsimulation
based on historically and ethnographically plausible rates and
household formation scenarios produces simulated households in
accord with those of the adjusted census. Results permit estimation
of the true population of the region, of the kinship and age
composition of households under frontier conditions, and the
probable future composition of households as the frontier
stabilized and land shortage began to exert pressure for greater
density and household complexity. Part I concentrates on
historical, ethnographic, and linguistic evidence.},
}
-
David A. Freedman and K.W. Wachter
Heterogeneity and census adjustment for the intercensal base
Statistical Science 9, 476--485 (1994).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Current techniques for census adjustment involve the ``synthetic assumption'' that undercount rates are constant within ``post- strata'' across geographical areas. A poststratum is a subgroup of people with given demographic characteristics; poststrata are chosen to minimize heterogeneity in undercount rates. This paper will use 1990 census data to assess the synthetic assumption. We find that heterogeneity within poststrata is quite large, with a corresponding impact on local undercount rates estimated by the synthetic method. Thus, any comparison of error rates between the census and adjusted counts should take heterogeneity into account.
@article{FREEDMAN:1994:HACAFT,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Heterogeneity and census adjustment for the intercensal base},
JOURNAL = {Statistical Science},
VOLUME = {9},
YEAR = {1994},
PAGES = {476--485},
ID = {info:doi/10.1214/ss/1177010260},
ABSTRACT = {Current techniques for census adjustment involve the ``synthetic
assumption'' that undercount rates are constant within ``post-
strata'' across geographical areas. A poststratum is a subgroup of
people with given demographic characteristics; poststrata are
chosen to minimize heterogeneity in undercount rates. This paper
will use 1990 census data to assess the synthetic assumption. We
find that heterogeneity within poststrata is quite large, with a
corresponding impact on local undercount rates estimated by the
synthetic method. Thus, any comparison of error rates between the
census and adjusted counts should take heterogeneity into account.},
}
-
K.W. Wachter
The cohort feedback model with symmetric net maternity
Mathematical Population Studies 5, 25--44 (1994).
[GScholar?]
[ZM]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Demographic cohort feedback models were introduced by {\it R. D. Lee} [Demography 11, 563-585 (1974)]. In these nonlinear models, a cohort's net reproduction ratio responds inversely to cohort size at birth, while the shape of the net maternity function remains constant. For certain response strengths such a model leads to sustained cycles in the trajectory of births.\par Suppose that the net maternity function is symmetric under reflection around some mean age of childbearing. I prove that the model then has cyclic solutions with period exactly equal to twice the mean age of childbearing not merely in a neighborhood of equilibrium but for a range of parameter values which is unbounded in a certain suitable sense. Sobolev space methods are introduced for the theorem's proof. This ``global'' bifurcation theorem for the cohort feedback model with symmetric net maternity provides a benchmark case for understanding the characteristics of nonlinear population waves of realistic size.
@article{WACHTER:1994:TCFMWS:0873.92037,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {The cohort feedback model with symmetric net maternity},
JOURNAL = {Mathematical Population Studies},
ISSN = {0889-8480},
VOLUME = {5},
YEAR = {1994},
PAGES = {25--44},
ZBLABSTRACT = {Demographic cohort feedback models were introduced by {\it R. D.
Lee} [Demography 11, 563-585 (1974)]. In these nonlinear models, a
cohort's net reproduction ratio responds inversely to cohort size
at birth, while the shape of the net maternity function remains
constant. For certain response strengths such a model leads to
sustained cycles in the trajectory of births.\par Suppose that the
net maternity function is symmetric under reflection around some
mean age of childbearing. I prove that the model then has cyclic
solutions with period exactly equal to twice the mean age of
childbearing not merely in a neighborhood of equilibrium but for a
range of parameter values which is unbounded in a certain suitable
sense. Sobolev space methods are introduced for the theorem's
proof. This ``global'' bifurcation theorem for the cohort feedback
model with symmetric net maternity provides a benchmark case for
understanding the characteristics of nonlinear population waves of
realistic size.},
ZBLCLASS = {91D20;92D25},
ID = {info:zbl/0873.92037},
}
-
Shripad Tuljapurkar, Carl Boe and Kenneth W. Wachter
Nonlinear feedback dynamics in fisheries: Analysis of the Deriso−Schnute model
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 51, 1462--1473 (1994).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Fishery models of the Deriso--Schnute form are based on the dynamics of an age-structured population, together with a nonlinear stock-recruitment relationship. Cyclical dynamics are commonly observed in fisheries and have been attributed to feedback between stock and recruitment. In this paper, we do four things. First, we present analytical results on sustained oscillations driven by nonlinear recruitment. These results show explicitly how density dependence near equilibrium determines the character of sustained population oscillations. Second, we briefly characterize the dynamics of the Deriso--Schnute model when the density-dependent response becomes very strong. We find that the Deriso--Schnute model displays sustained, complex (probably chaotic) variability of large magnitude, but only typically when reproduction is concentrated at very few ages. Third, we dissect the nature of density dependence in recruitment, contrasting a ``local'' view that uses information about response to small variations in stock with a ``global'' view that uses a function such as Schnute's over the entire range of stock levels. Finally, we argue that the global approach leads to practical and theoretical difficulties and that a local view may be more biologically realistic.
@article{TULJAPURKAR:1994:NFDIFA,
AUTHOR = {Tuljapurkar, Shripad and Boe, Carl and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {Nonlinear feedback dynamics in fisheries: Analysis of the
{D}eriso--{S}chnute model},
JOURNAL = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
VOLUME = {51},
YEAR = {1994},
PAGES = {1462--1473},
ABSTRACT = {Fishery models of the Deriso--Schnute form are based on the
dynamics of an age-structured population, together with a nonlinear
stock-recruitment relationship. Cyclical dynamics are commonly
observed in fisheries and have been attributed to feedback between
stock and recruitment. In this paper, we do four things. First, we
present analytical results on sustained oscillations driven by
nonlinear recruitment. These results show explicitly how density
dependence near equilibrium determines the character of sustained
population oscillations. Second, we briefly characterize the
dynamics of the Deriso--Schnute model when the density-dependent
response becomes very strong. We find that the Deriso--Schnute
model displays sustained, complex (probably chaotic) variability of
large magnitude, but only typically when reproduction is
concentrated at very few ages. Third, we dissect the nature of
density dependence in recruitment, contrasting a ``local'' view
that uses information about response to small variations in stock
with a ``global'' view that uses a function such as Schnute's over
the entire range of stock levels. Finally, we argue that the global
approach leads to practical and theoretical difficulties and that a
local view may be more biologically realistic.},
ID = {info:doi/10.1139/f94-146},
}
-
George R. Merriam and Kenneth W. Wachter
Analysis of the temporal coincidence of hormonal pulses
In Pulsatility in Neuroendocrine Systems (Jon E. Levine, editor), 326--335, Academic Press. San Diego, CA (1994).
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
[Editorial notes]
@incollection{MERRIAM:1994:AOTTCO,
AUTHOR = {Merriam, George R. and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {Analysis of the temporal coincidence of hormonal pulses},
EDITOR = {Levine, Jon E.},
BOOKTITLE = {Pulsatility in Neuroendocrine Systems},
ISBN = {012185289X,9780121852894},
YEAR = {1994},
PUBLISHER = {Academic Press},
ADDRESS = {San Diego, CA},
PAGES = {326--335},
EDNOTES = {<version1>According to one online ref, this was also published in
"Methods Neurosci 1994; 20:326--335", though it is unclear which
journal that is - couldn't corroborate.},
}
<version1>According to one online ref, this was also published in "Methods Neurosci 1994; 20:326--335", though it is unclear which journal that is - couldn't corroborate.
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