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Personal bibliography of
Kenneth Willcox Wachter
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- MGP
- MathScinet
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Found 37 works authored jointly with
[ GScholar?] [ Google?]
-
James R. Carey, Nikos T. Papadopoulous, Hans-Georg M"uller, Byron I. Katsoyannos, Nikos A. Kouloussis, Jane-Ling Wang, Kenneth Wachter, Wei Yu and and Pablo Liedo
Age Structure Changes and Extraordinary Lifespan in Wild Medfly Populations
Aging Cell 7, 426--437 (2008).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: The main purpose of this study was to test the hypotheses that major changes in age structure occur in wild populations of the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) and that a substantial fraction of individuals survive to middle age and beyond (> 3--4 weeks). We thus brought reference life tables and deconvolution models to bear on medfly mortality data gathered from a 3-year study of field- captured individuals that were monitored in the laboratory. The average time-to-death of captured females differed between sampling dates by 23.9, 22.7, and 37.0 days in the 2003, 2004, and 2005 field seasons, respectively. These shifts in average times-to-death provided evidence of changes in population age structure. Estimates indicated that middle-aged medflies (> 30 days) were common in the population. A surprise in the study was the extraordinary longevity observed in field-captured medflies. For example, 19 captured females but no reference females survived in the laboratory for 140 days or more, and 6 captured but no reference males survived in the laboratory for 170 days or more. This paper advances the study of aging in the wild by introducing a new method for estimating age structure in insect populations, demonstrating that major changes in age structure occur in field populations of insects, showing that middle-aged individuals are common in the wild, and revealing the extraordinary lifespans of wild-caught individuals due to their early life experience in the field.
@article{KWW2008c,
TITLE = {Age Structure Changes and Extraordinary Lifespan in Wild Medfly
Populations},
AUTHOR = {James R. Carey and Nikos T. Papadopoulous and Hans-Georg M"{u}ller
and Byron I. Katsoyannos and Nikos A. Kouloussis and Jane-Ling Wang
and Kenneth Wachter and Wei Yu and and Pablo Liedo},
JOURNAL = {Aging Cell},
VOLUME = {7},
PAGES = {426--437},
YEAR = {2008},
ID = {info:doi/10.1111/j.1474-9726.2008.00390.x},
ABSTRACT = {The main purpose of this study was to test the hypotheses that
major changes in age structure occur in wild populations of the
Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) and that a substantial fraction of
individuals survive to middle age and beyond (> 3--4 weeks). We
thus brought reference life tables and deconvolution models to bear
on medfly mortality data gathered from a 3-year study of field-
captured individuals that were monitored in the laboratory. The
average time-to-death of captured females differed between sampling
dates by 23.9, 22.7, and 37.0 days in the 2003, 2004, and 2005
field seasons, respectively. These shifts in average times-to-death
provided evidence of changes in population age structure. Estimates
indicated that middle-aged medflies (> 30 days) were common in the
population. A surprise in the study was the extraordinary longevity
observed in field-captured medflies. For example, 19 captured
females but no reference females survived in the laboratory for 140
days or more, and 6 captured but no reference males survived in the
laboratory for 170 days or more. This paper advances the study of
aging in the wild by introducing a new method for estimating age
structure in insect populations, demonstrating that major changes
in age structure occur in field populations of insects, showing
that middle-aged individuals are common in the wild, and revealing
the extraordinary lifespans of wild-caught individuals due to their
early life experience in the field.},
}
-
David A. Freedman and Kenneth W. Wachter
Methods for Census 2000 and Statistical Adjustments
In The SAGE Handbook of Social Science Methodology (William Outhwaite and Stephen P. Turner, editors), 232--245, Sage Publications. London (2007).
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
@incollection{KWW2007,
TITLE = {Methods for Census 2000 and Statistical Adjustments},
AUTHOR = {David A. Freedman and Kenneth W. Wachter},
BOOKTITLE = {The SAGE Handbook of Social Science Methodology},
EDITOR = {William Outhwaite and Stephen P. Turner},
PUBLISHER = {Sage Publications},
ADDRESS = {London},
CHAPTER = {13},
PAGES = {232--245},
YEAR = {2007},
ISBN = {1412901197,9781412901192},
}
-
James Vaupel, Kenneth Wachter and Maxine Weinstein
Introduction
In Biosocial Surveys (Maxine Weinstein, James W. Vaupel and Kenneth W. Wachter, editors), 1--11, National Academy Press. Washington, DC (2007).
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
@incollection{KWW2008a,
TITLE = {Introduction},
AUTHOR = {James Vaupel and Kenneth Wachter and Maxine Weinstein},
BOOKTITLE = {Biosocial Surveys},
EDITOR = {Maxine Weinstein and James W. Vaupel and Kenneth W. Wachter},
PUBLISHER = {National Academy Press},
ADDRESS = {Washington, DC},
PAGES = {1--11},
YEAR = {2007},
ISBN = {0309108675,9780309108676},
}
-
David A. Freedman and Kenneth W. Wachter
On the likelihood of improving the accuracy of the census through statistical adjustment
In Science and Statistics: A Festschrift for Terry Speed (Darlene R. Goldstein, editor), IMS Lecture Notes−-Monograph Series Vol. 40, 197--230, Institute of Mathematical Statistics. Beachwood, OH (2003).
[GScholar?]
[MR]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: In this article, we sketch procedures for taking the census, making adjustments, and evaluating the results. Despite what you read in the newspapers, the census is remarkably accurate. Statistical adjustment is unlikely to improve on the census, because adjustment can easily put in more error than it takes out. Indeed, error rates in the adjustment turn out to be comparable to errors in the census. The data suggest a strong geographical pattern to such errors, even after controlling for demography---which contradicts a basic premise of adjustment. The complex demographic controls built into the adjustment mechanism turn out to be counter-productive. Proponents of adjustment have cited \u201closs function analysis \u201d to compare the accuracy of the census and adjustment, generally to the advantage of the latter. However, the chosen analyses make assumptions that are highly stylized, and quite favorable to adjustment. With more realistic assumptions, loss function analysis is neutral, or favors the census. At the heart of the adjustment mechanism, there is a large sample survey---the post enumeration survey. The size of the survey cannot be justified. The adjustment process now consumes too large a share of the Census Bureau's scarce resources, which should be reallocated to other Bureau programs.
@incollection{FREEDMAN:2003:OTLOIT:MR1993596,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {On the likelihood of improving the accuracy of the census through
statistical adjustment},
EDITOR = {Goldstein, Darlene R.},
BOOKTITLE = {Science and Statistics: A {F}estschrift for {T}erry {S}peed},
ISBN = {0940600560, 9780940600560},
SERIES = {IMS Lecture Notes---Monograph Series},
VOLUME = {40},
YEAR = {2003},
PAGES = {197--230},
PUBLISHER = {Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
ADDRESS = {Beachwood, OH},
MRCLASS = {62-06 (00B30)},
ID = {info:mr/MR1993596 (2004d:62008)},
ABSTRACT = {In this article, we sketch procedures for taking the census, making
adjustments, and evaluating the results. Despite what you read in
the newspapers, the census is remarkably accurate. Statistical
adjustment is unlikely to improve on the census, because adjustment
can easily put in more error than it takes out. Indeed, error rates
in the adjustment turn out to be comparable to errors in the
census. The data suggest a strong geographical pattern to such
errors, even after controlling for demography---which contradicts a
basic premise of adjustment. The complex demographic controls built
into the adjustment mechanism turn out to be counter-productive.
Proponents of adjustment have cited \u201closs function analysis
\u201d to compare the accuracy of the census and adjustment,
generally to the advantage of the latter. However, the chosen
analyses make assumptions that are highly stylized, and quite
favorable to adjustment. With more realistic assumptions, loss
function analysis is neutral, or favors the census. At the heart of
the adjustment mechanism, there is a large sample survey---the post
enumeration survey. The size of the survey cannot be justified. The
adjustment process now consumes too large a share of the Census
Bureau's scarce resources, which should be reallocated to other
Bureau programs.},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter, John E. Knodel and Mark VanLandingham
Parental bereavement: heterogeneous impacts of AIDS in Thailand
Journal of Econometrics 112 (No. 1), 193--206 (2003).
[GScholar?]
[ZM] [MR] [DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Over the coming decades in Thailand, aging parents whose adult children sicken with AIDS will bear burdens of caregiving and loss. Using demographic microsimulations, we show that the new, lower projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic still imply that $8\%$ of Thais over the age of 50 in 1995 will lose one or more children to AIDS before their own deaths. The proportion of all losses which are multiple losses can vary from $12\%$ to $33\%$ under a range of assumptions about plausible family-to-family heterogeneity in risks of infection.
@article{WACHTER:2003:PBHIOA,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Knodel, John E. and VanLandingham, Mark},
TITLE = {Parental bereavement: heterogeneous impacts of {AIDS} in {T}hailand},
JOURNAL = {J. Econometrics},
FJOURNAL = {Journal of Econometrics},
ISSN = {0304-4076},
VOLUME = {112},
NUMBER = {1},
YEAR = {2003},
PAGES = {193--206},
CODEN = {JECMB6},
MRCLASS = {Database Expansion Item},
ZBLABSTRACT = {Over the coming decades in Thailand, aging parents whose adult
children sicken with AIDS will bear burdens of caregiving and loss.
Using demographic microsimulations, we show that the new, lower
projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic still imply that $8\%$ of
Thais over the age of 50 in 1995 will lose one or more children to
AIDS before their own deaths. The proportion of all losses which
are multiple losses can vary from $12\%$ to $33\%$ under a range of
assumptions about plausible family-to-family heterogeneity in risks
of infection.},
ZBLCLASS = {92D30;91D20},
ID = {info:zbl/1008.92033, info:mr/MR1963238,
info:doi/10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00160-4},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter, John E. Knodel and Mark J. VanLandingham
AIDS and the elderly of Thailand: Projecting familial impacts
Demography 39, 25--41 (2002).
[Link]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
[Editorial notes]
Abstract: We apply aggregate demographic analysis and computer microsimulation to project the number of older Thais who will lose children to AIDS during their own lifetimes and to assess their involvement with ill children through caregiving and coresidence. Parental bereavements from AIDS are predicted to peak at around 80,000 per year between 2003 and 2007. Despite an HIV prevalence of only $2\%, 13\%$ of Thais who were over age 50 as of 1995 are likely to experience the loss of at least one adult child to AIDS, and $12\%$ of them will lose multiple children. The chance of losing an adult child during one's lifetime will be $70\%$ higher than if there were no AIDS epidemic. The impacts of the worldwide epidemic of HIV-AIDS extend far beyond the infected individuals themselves. Demographic disruptions, recognized early by Palloni and Lee (1992), loom ever larger. A host of emotional, economic, social, and physical strains on family members have been surveyed by Bloom and Godwin (1997), Bor and Elford (1994), and Patel (1995). Orphanhood and the plight of children whose parents are living with or dying of AIDS are attracting particular attention...
@article{WACHTER:2002:AATEOT,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Knodel, John E. and VanLandingham, Mark J.},
TITLE = {AIDS and the elderly of {T}hailand: Projecting familial impacts},
JOURNAL = {Demography},
VOLUME = {39},
YEAR = {2002},
PAGES = {25--41},
URL = {http://muse.jhu.edu/login?uri=/journals/demography/v039/39.1wachter.html},
ABSTRACT = {We apply aggregate demographic analysis and computer
microsimulation to project the number of older Thais who will lose
children to AIDS during their own lifetimes and to assess their
involvement with ill children through caregiving and coresidence.
Parental bereavements from AIDS are predicted to peak at around
80,000 per year between 2003 and 2007. Despite an HIV prevalence of
only $2\%, 13\%$ of Thais who were over age 50 as of 1995 are
likely to experience the loss of at least one adult child to AIDS,
and $12\%$ of them will lose multiple children. The chance of
losing an adult child during one's lifetime will be $70\%$ higher
than if there were no AIDS epidemic. The impacts of the worldwide
epidemic of HIV-AIDS extend far beyond the infected individuals
themselves. Demographic disruptions, recognized early by Palloni
and Lee (1992), loom ever larger. A host of emotional, economic,
social, and physical strains on family members have been surveyed
by Bloom and Godwin (1997), Bor and Elford (1994), and Patel
(1995). Orphanhood and the plight of children whose parents are
living with or dying of AIDS are attracting particular attention...},
EDNOTES = {<abpart>},
}
-
David Freedman and Kenneth W. Wachter
Census adjustment: Statistical promise or illusion?
Society 39, 26--33 (2001).
without abstract
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
@article{FREEDMAN:2001:CASPOI,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {Census adjustment: Statistical promise or illusion?},
JOURNAL = {Society},
VOLUME = {39},
YEAR = {2001},
PAGES = {26--33},
ID = {info:doi/10.1007/BF02712617},
NOTE = {without abstract},
}
-
David A. Freedman, Philip Stark and Kenneth W. Wachter
A probability model for census adjustment
Mathematical Population Studies 9, 165--180 (2001).
[GScholar?]
[ZM]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: The census can be adjusted using capture-recapture techniques: capture in the census, recapture in a special Post Enumeration Survey (PES) done after the census. The population is estimated using the Dual System Estimator (DSE). Estimates are made separately for demographic groups called post strata; adjustment factors are then applied to these demographic groups within small geographic areas. We offer a probability model for this process, in which several sources of error can be distinguished. In this model, correlation bias arises from behavioral differences between persons counted in the census and persons missed by the census. The first group may on the whole be more likely to respond to the PES: if so, the DSE will be systematically too low, and that is an example of correlation bias. Correlation bias is distinguished from heterogeneity, which occurs if the census has a higher capture rate in some geographic areas than others. Finally, ratio estimator bias and variance are considered. The objective is to clarify the probabilistic foundations of the DSE, and the definitions of certain terms widely used in discussing that estimator.
@article{FREEDMAN:2001:APMFCA:0990.91050,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Stark, Philip and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {A probability model for census adjustment},
JOURNAL = {Mathematical Population Studies},
ISSN = {0889-8480},
VOLUME = {9},
YEAR = {2001},
PAGES = {165--180},
ZBLABSTRACT = {The census can be adjusted using capture-recapture techniques:
capture in the census, recapture in a special Post Enumeration
Survey (PES) done after the census. The population is estimated
using the Dual System Estimator (DSE). Estimates are made
separately for demographic groups called post strata; adjustment
factors are then applied to these demographic groups within small
geographic areas. We offer a probability model for this process, in
which several sources of error can be distinguished. In this model,
correlation bias arises from behavioral differences between persons
counted in the census and persons missed by the census. The first
group may on the whole be more likely to respond to the PES: if so,
the DSE will be systematically too low, and that is an example of
correlation bias. Correlation bias is distinguished from
heterogeneity, which occurs if the census has a higher capture rate
in some geographic areas than others. Finally, ratio estimator bias
and variance are considered. The objective is to clarify the
probabilistic foundations of the DSE, and the definitions of
certain terms widely used in discussing that estimator.},
ZBLCLASS = {91D20},
ID = {info:zbl/0990.91050},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter and David A. Freedman
Measuring local heterogeneity with 1990 census data
Demographic Research 3 (No. 10) (2000).
[Link]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: A sample covering 204,394 blocks from the 1990 U.S. Census permits measurement of residual heterogeneity from local area to local area after controlling by stratification for demographic characteristics such as race, ethnicity, age, sex as well as geographic characteristics such as region and place-type. The local areas have populations on the order of 10,000 people. The variables studied are four indices of enumeration difficulty. The results show that variance due to heterogeneity from area to area is comparable to (if not larger than) variance from stratum to stratum and can be expected to dominate sampling variance---especially with samples as large as the ones used in the U.S. Census Bureau's Post-Enumeration Surveys. These findings constrain the viable estimation strategies that could be employed for local tallies in the U.S. 2000 Census.
@article{WACHTER:2000:MLHWCD,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Freedman, David A.},
TITLE = {Measuring local heterogeneity with 1990 census data},
JOURNAL = {Demographic Research},
VOLUME = {3},
NUMBER = {10},
YEAR = {2000},
URL = {http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol3/10/},
ABSTRACT = {A sample covering 204,394 blocks from the 1990 U.S. Census permits
measurement of residual heterogeneity from local area to local area
after controlling by stratification for demographic characteristics
such as race, ethnicity, age, sex as well as geographic
characteristics such as region and place-type. The local areas have
populations on the order of 10,000 people. The variables studied
are four indices of enumeration difficulty. The results show that
variance due to heterogeneity from area to area is comparable to
(if not larger than) variance from stratum to stratum and can be
expected to dominate sampling variance---especially with samples as
large as the ones used in the U.S. Census Bureau's Post-Enumeration
Surveys. These findings constrain the viable estimation strategies
that could be employed for local tallies in the U.S. 2000 Census.},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter and David A. Freedman
The fifth cell: Correlation bias in U.S. census adjustment
Evaluation Review 24, 191--212 (2000).
[Link]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: One form of error that can affect census adjustments is correlation bias, reflecting people who are doubly missing--from the census and from the adjusted counts as well. This article presents a method for estimating the total national number of doubly-missing people and their distribution by race and sex. Application to the 1990 U.S. census adjustment leads to an estimate of 3 million doubly- missing people. Correlation bias is likely to be a serious problem for census adjustment in 2000. The methods of this article are well suited for measuring its magnitude.
@article{WACHTER:2000:TFCCBI,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Freedman, David A.},
TITLE = {The fifth cell: Correlation bias in U.S. census adjustment},
JOURNAL = {Evaluation Review},
VOLUME = {24},
YEAR = {2000},
PAGES = {191--212},
URL = {http://erx.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/24/2/191},
ABSTRACT = {One form of error that can affect census adjustments is correlation
bias, reflecting people who are doubly missing--from the census and
from the adjusted counts as well. This article presents a method
for estimating the total national number of doubly-missing people
and their distribution by race and sex. Application to the 1990
U.S. census adjustment leads to an estimate of 3 million doubly-
missing people. Correlation bias is likely to be a serious problem
for census adjustment in 2000. The methods of this article are well
suited for measuring its magnitude.},
}
-
Lawrence D. Brown, Morris L. Eaton, David A. Freedman, Stephen P. Klein, Richard A. Olshen, Kenneth W. Wachter, Martin T. Wells and Donald Ylvisaker
Statistical controversies in census 2000
Jurimetrics Journal 39, 347--375 (1999).
[.pdf]
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: This paper discusses Census 2000, focusing on sampling techniques for adjustment. Experience with similar adjustment methods in 1980 and 1990 suggests that the design for Census 2000 is quite risky. The use of sampling to obtain population counts for apportionment was rejected by the Supreme Court as violating the Census Act. Statistical adjustments for the purpose of redistricting may or may not be constitutional.
@article{BROWN:1999:SCIC,
AUTHOR = {Brown, Lawrence D. and Eaton, Morris L. and Freedman, David A. and
Klein, Stephen P. and Olshen, Richard A. and Wachter, Kenneth W.
and Wells, Martin T. and Ylvisaker, Donald},
TITLE = {Statistical controversies in census 2000},
JOURNAL = {Jurimetrics Journal},
VOLUME = {39},
YEAR = {1999},
PAGES = {347--375},
URL = {http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~census/537.pdf},
ABSTRACT = {This paper discusses Census 2000, focusing on sampling techniques
for adjustment. Experience with similar adjustment methods in 1980
and 1990 suggests that the design for Census 2000 is quite risky.
The use of sampling to obtain population counts for apportionment
was rejected by the Supreme Court as violating the Census Act.
Statistical adjustments for the purpose of redistricting may or may
not be constitutional.},
}
-
Kenneth W. Wachter, Debra Blackwell and Eugene A. Hammel
Testing the validity of kinship microsimulation
Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modeling 26 (No. 6), 89--104 (1997).
[GScholar?]
[ZM] [DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Computer microsimulation is capable of generating detailed reconstructions and forecasts of the numbers of living kin that members of a population have. The available detail, specificity, and consistency of vital rates for the past and the accuracy of vital rates projected for the future necessarily limit the accuracy of the kinship estimates that can be produced.\par This study is an external validity test of {\it J. Reeves'} [A statistical analysis and projection of the effects of divorce on future U.S. kinship structure. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. California/Berkeley (1982)] reconstruction and forecast of U.S. kin counts with the SOCSIM microsimulation program. The external standard is provided by estimates from the 1987-88 wave of the National Survey of Families and Households, the first detailed information on numbers and ages of kin for the United States. We compare forecasts with estimates for average numbers of living grandchildren, living full-siblings, and living half-siblings as functions of age. We find remarkably close agreement for some of the predictions, along with several instances of systematic discrepancies. The discrepancies most likely stem from errors in the forecasts rather than in the survey estimates. Interacting rather than isolable errors appear to be responsible. Our validity tests provide a basis for qualified faith in the effectiveness of kinship microsimulation.
@article{WACHTER:1997:TTVOKM,
AUTHOR = {Wachter, Kenneth W. and Blackwell, Debra and Hammel, Eugene A.},
TITLE = {Testing the validity of kinship microsimulation},
JOURNAL = {Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modeling},
ISSN = {0895-7177},
VOLUME = {26},
NUMBER = {6},
YEAR = {1997},
PAGES = {89--104},
ZBLABSTRACT = {Computer microsimulation is capable of generating detailed
reconstructions and forecasts of the numbers of living kin that
members of a population have. The available detail, specificity,
and consistency of vital rates for the past and the accuracy of
vital rates projected for the future necessarily limit the accuracy
of the kinship estimates that can be produced.\par This study is an
external validity test of {\it J. Reeves'} [A statistical analysis
and projection of the effects of divorce on future U.S. kinship
structure. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. California/Berkeley (1982)]
reconstruction and forecast of U.S. kin counts with the SOCSIM
microsimulation program. The external standard is provided by
estimates from the 1987-88 wave of the National Survey of Families
and Households, the first detailed information on numbers and ages
of kin for the United States. We compare forecasts with estimates
for average numbers of living grandchildren, living full-siblings,
and living half-siblings as functions of age. We find remarkably
close agreement for some of the predictions, along with several
instances of systematic discrepancies. The discrepancies most
likely stem from errors in the forecasts rather than in the survey
estimates. Interacting rather than isolable errors appear to be
responsible. Our validity tests provide a basis for qualified faith
in the effectiveness of kinship microsimulation.},
ZBLCLASS = {91D20},
ID = {info:zbl/0884.92034, info:doi/10.1016/S0895-7177(97)00172-6},
}
-
E.A. Hammel and K.W. Wachter
Evaluating the Slavonian census of 1698: Part II: A microsimulation test and extension of the evidence
European Journal of Population 12, 295--326 (1996).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: An adjusted 17th C. census based on critical reading of the historical text is the basis for indirect estimation of uncounted persons. The census states no ages and excludes many categories of household residents. Microsimulation based on historically and ethnographically plausible rates and household formation scenarios produces simulated households that match the observable portions of households in the adjusted census. Microsimulation results permit estimation of the uncounted population, of the kinship and age composition of households under extant frontier conditions, and the probable future composition of households as the frontier stabilized and land shortage began to exert pressure for greater density and household complexity.
@article{HAMMEL:1996:ETSCOP,
AUTHOR = {Hammel, E.A. and Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Evaluating the {S}lavonian census of 1698: Part II: A
microsimulation test and extension of the evidence},
JOURNAL = {European Journal of Population},
VOLUME = {12},
YEAR = {1996},
PAGES = {295--326},
ID = {info:doi/10.1007/BF01796911},
ABSTRACT = {An adjusted 17th C. census based on critical reading of the
historical text is the basis for indirect estimation of uncounted
persons. The census states no ages and excludes many categories of
household residents. Microsimulation based on historically and
ethnographically plausible rates and household formation scenarios
produces simulated households that match the observable portions of
households in the adjusted census. Microsimulation results permit
estimation of the uncounted population, of the kinship and age
composition of households under extant frontier conditions, and the
probable future composition of households as the frontier
stabilized and land shortage began to exert pressure for greater
density and household complexity.},
}
-
David A. Freedman and Kenneth W. Wachter
Planning for the census in the year 2000
Evaluation Review 20, 355--377 (1996).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Considering the difficulties, the Census Bureau does a remarkably good job at counting people. There are two current techniques for evaluating or adjusting the census: (a) demographic analysis uses administrative records to make independent population estimates, which can be compared to census counts; (b) datafrom an independent sample survey can be used to estimate population coverage. If there is a large undercount, these techniques may be accurate enough for adjustment. With a small undercount, it is unlikely that current adjustment methodologies can improve on the census; instead, adjustment could easily degrade the accuracy of the data. This article reviews plans for Census 2000, including proposals for adjustment, in the light of past experience.
@article{FREEDMAN:1996:PFTCIT,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {Planning for the census in the year 2000},
JOURNAL = {Evaluation Review},
VOLUME = {20},
YEAR = {1996},
PAGES = {355--377},
ID = {info:doi/10.1177/0193841X9602000401},
ABSTRACT = {Considering the difficulties, the Census Bureau does a remarkably
good job at counting people. There are two current techniques for
evaluating or adjusting the census: (a) demographic analysis uses
administrative records to make independent population estimates,
which can be compared to census counts; (b) datafrom an independent
sample survey can be used to estimate population coverage. If there
is a large undercount, these techniques may be accurate enough for
adjustment. With a small undercount, it is unlikely that current
adjustment methodologies can improve on the census; instead,
adjustment could easily degrade the accuracy of the data. This
article reviews plans for Census 2000, including proposals for
adjustment, in the light of past experience.},
}
-
E.A. Hammel and K.W. Wachter
Evaluating the Slavonian census of 1698: Part I: Structure and meaning
European Journal of Population 12, 145--166 (1996).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Microsimulation, other demographic tools, and evidence of history and ethnography are used to evaluate an important 17th century household census. Linguistic, ethnographic, and internal evidence allow adjustment of anomalies in census categories. Microsimulation based on historically and ethnographically plausible rates and household formation scenarios produces simulated households in accord with those of the adjusted census. Results permit estimation of the true population of the region, of the kinship and age composition of households under frontier conditions, and the probable future composition of households as the frontier stabilized and land shortage began to exert pressure for greater density and household complexity. Part I concentrates on historical, ethnographic, and linguistic evidence.
@article{HAMMEL:1996:ETSCOP,
AUTHOR = {Hammel, E.A. and Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Evaluating the {S}lavonian census of 1698: Part I: Structure and
meaning},
JOURNAL = {European Journal of Population},
VOLUME = {12},
YEAR = {1996},
PAGES = {145--166},
ID = {info:doi/10.1007/BF01797081},
ABSTRACT = {Microsimulation, other demographic tools, and evidence of history
and ethnography are used to evaluate an important 17th century
household census. Linguistic, ethnographic, and internal evidence
allow adjustment of anomalies in census categories. Microsimulation
based on historically and ethnographically plausible rates and
household formation scenarios produces simulated households in
accord with those of the adjusted census. Results permit estimation
of the true population of the region, of the kinship and age
composition of households under frontier conditions, and the
probable future composition of households as the frontier
stabilized and land shortage began to exert pressure for greater
density and household complexity. Part I concentrates on
historical, ethnographic, and linguistic evidence.},
}
-
David A. Freedman and K.W. Wachter
Heterogeneity and census adjustment for the intercensal base
Statistical Science 9, 476--485 (1994).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Current techniques for census adjustment involve the ``synthetic assumption'' that undercount rates are constant within ``post- strata'' across geographical areas. A poststratum is a subgroup of people with given demographic characteristics; poststrata are chosen to minimize heterogeneity in undercount rates. This paper will use 1990 census data to assess the synthetic assumption. We find that heterogeneity within poststrata is quite large, with a corresponding impact on local undercount rates estimated by the synthetic method. Thus, any comparison of error rates between the census and adjusted counts should take heterogeneity into account.
@article{FREEDMAN:1994:HACAFT,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Wachter, K.W.},
TITLE = {Heterogeneity and census adjustment for the intercensal base},
JOURNAL = {Statistical Science},
VOLUME = {9},
YEAR = {1994},
PAGES = {476--485},
ID = {info:doi/10.1214/ss/1177010260},
ABSTRACT = {Current techniques for census adjustment involve the ``synthetic
assumption'' that undercount rates are constant within ``post-
strata'' across geographical areas. A poststratum is a subgroup of
people with given demographic characteristics; poststrata are
chosen to minimize heterogeneity in undercount rates. This paper
will use 1990 census data to assess the synthetic assumption. We
find that heterogeneity within poststrata is quite large, with a
corresponding impact on local undercount rates estimated by the
synthetic method. Thus, any comparison of error rates between the
census and adjusted counts should take heterogeneity into account.},
}
-
George R. Merriam and Kenneth W. Wachter
Analysis of the temporal coincidence of hormonal pulses
In Pulsatility in Neuroendocrine Systems (Jon E. Levine, editor), 326--335, Academic Press. San Diego, CA (1994).
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
[Editorial notes]
@incollection{MERRIAM:1994:AOTTCO,
AUTHOR = {Merriam, George R. and Wachter, Kenneth W.},
TITLE = {Analysis of the temporal coincidence of hormonal pulses},
EDITOR = {Levine, Jon E.},
BOOKTITLE = {Pulsatility in Neuroendocrine Systems},
ISBN = {012185289X,9780121852894},
YEAR = {1994},
PUBLISHER = {Academic Press},
ADDRESS = {San Diego, CA},
PAGES = {326--335},
EDNOTES = {<version1>According to one online ref, this was also published in
"Methods Neurosci 1994; 20:326--335", though it is unclear which
journal that is - couldn't corroborate.},
}
<version1>According to one online ref, this was also published in "Methods Neurosci 1994; 20:326--335", though it is unclear which journal that is - couldn't corroborate.
-
David A. Freedman, K.W. Wachter, R. Cutler and S. Klein
Adjusting the census of 1990: Loss Functions
Evaluation Review 18, 243--280 (1994).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
[Editorial notes]
Abstract: Considering the difficulties, the Census Bureau does a remarkably good job at counting people. This article discusses techniques for adjusting the census. If there is a large undercount, these techniques may be accurate enough for adjustment. With a small undercount, adjustment could easily degrade the accuracy of the data. The Bureau argued that errors in the census were more serious than errors in the proposed adjustment, using ``loss function analysis'' to balance the risks. This procedure turns out to depend on quite unreasonable assumptions. With other and more realistic assumptions, the balance favors the census. The story has a broader moral. Statistical models are often defended on grounds of robustness. However, internally generated measures of precision may be critical. If the model is at all complicated, these measures of precision may turn out to be driven by assumptions not data---the antithesis of robustness.
@article{FREEDMAN:1994:ATCOLF,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Wachter, K.W. and Cutler, R. and Klein, S.},
TITLE = {Adjusting the census of 1990: Loss Functions},
JOURNAL = {Evaluation Review},
VOLUME = {18},
YEAR = {1994},
PAGES = {243--280},
ID = {info:doi/10.1177/0193841X9401800301},
ABSTRACT = {Considering the difficulties, the Census Bureau does a remarkably
good job at counting people. This article discusses techniques for
adjusting the census. If there is a large undercount, these
techniques may be accurate enough for adjustment. With a small
undercount, adjustment could easily degrade the accuracy of the
data. The Bureau argued that errors in the census were more serious
than errors in the proposed adjustment, using ``loss function
analysis'' to balance the risks. This procedure turns out to depend
on quite unreasonable assumptions. With other and more realistic
assumptions, the balance favors the census. The story has a broader
moral. Statistical models are often defended on grounds of
robustness. However, internally generated measures of precision may
be critical. If the model is at all complicated, these measures of
precision may turn out to be driven by assumptions not data---the
antithesis of robustness.},
EDNOTES = {<contact>http://erx.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/18/3/243 gives
subtitle as one of the authors},
}
<contact>http://erx.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/18/3/243 gives subtitle as one of the authors
-
David A. Freedman, Kenneth W. Wachter, Daniel C. Coster, Richard Cutler and Stephen P. Klein
Adjusting the census of 1990: The smoothing model
Evaluation Review 17, 371--443 (1993).
[GScholar?]
[DOI]
[BibTeX]
Abstract: Considering the difficulties, the Census Bureau does a remarkably good job at counting people. This article discusses techniques for adjusting the census. If there is a large undercount, these techniques may be accurate enough for adjustment. With a small undercount, they are unlikely to improve on the census; instead, adjustment could easily degrade the accuracy of the data. The focus will be sampling error, that is, uncertainty in estimates due to the luck of the draw in choosing the sample. Sampling error is a major obstacle to adjusting the 1990 census, even at the state level. To control sampling error, the Census Bureau used a smoothing model. However, the model does not solve the problem, because its effects are strongly dependent on unverified and implausible assumptions. This story has a broader moral. Statistical models are often defended on grounds of robustness, that is, estimates do not depend strongly on assumptions. But the standard errors, which are internally generated measures of precision, may be critical. Then caution is in order. If the model is at all complicated, the standard errors may turn out to be driven by assumptions not data---the antithesis of robustness.
@article{FREEDMAN:1993:ATCOTS,
AUTHOR = {Freedman, David A. and Wachter, Kenneth W. and Coster, Daniel C.
and Cutler, Richard and Klein, Stephen P.},
TITLE = {Adjusting the census of 1990: The smoothing model},
JOURNAL = {Evaluation Review},
VOLUME = {17},
YEAR = {1993},
PAGES = {371--443},
ID = {info:doi/10.1177/0193841X9301700401},
ABSTRACT = {Considering the difficulties, the Census Bureau does a remarkably
good job at counting people. This article discusses techniques for
adjusting the census. If there is a large undercount, these
techniques may be accurate enough for adjustment. With a small
undercount, they are unlikely to improve on the census; instead,
adjustment could easily degrade the accuracy of the data. The focus
will be sampling error, that is, uncertainty in estimates due to
the luck of the draw in choosing the sample. Sampling error is a
major obstacle to adjusting the 1990 census, even at the state
level. To control sampling error, the Census Bureau used a
smoothing model. However, the model does not solve the problem,
because its effects are strongly dependent on unverified and
implausible assumptions. This story has a broader moral.
Statistical models are often defended on grounds of robustness,
that is, estimates do not depend strongly on assumptions. But the
standard errors, which are internally generated measures of
precision, may be critical. Then caution is in order. If the model
is at all complicated, the standard errors may turn out to be
driven by assumptions not data---the antithesis of robustness.},
}
-
E.A. Hammel, C. Mason, K.W. Wachter, F. Wang and H. Yang
Rapid population change and kinship: the effects of unstable demographic changes on Chinese kinship networks, 1750-2250
In Consequences of Rapid Population Growth in Developing Countries (G. Tapinos and D. Blanchet, editors), 243--271, Taylor and Francis. New York, NY (1991).
French translation published by the Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, Paris.
[GScholar?]
[BibTeX]
[Editorial notes]
@inproceedings{HAMMEL:1991:RPCAKT,
AUTHOR = {Hammel, E.A. and Mason, C. and Wachter, K.W. and Wang, F. and Yang,
H.},
TITLE = {Rapid population change and kinship: the effects of unstable
demographic changes on Chinese kinship networks, 1750-2250},
EDITOR = {Tapinos, G. and Blanchet, D.},
BOOKTITLE = {Consequences of Rapid Population Growth in Developing Countries},
YEAR = {1991},
ISBN = {0844815667, 9780844815664},
PUBLISHER = {Taylor and Francis},
ADDRESS = {New York, NY},
PAGES = {243--271},
NOTE = {French translation published by the Institut National d'Etudes
D\'{e}mographiques, Paris.},
EDNOTES = {<bookdetail>Tapinos and Blanchet wrote the preface but do not
appear to be anywhere credited as editors. However, the EDITOR
field is required here. Not sure how to resolve this.},
}
<bookdetail>Tapinos and Blanchet wrote the preface but do not appear to be anywhere credited as editors. However, the EDITOR field is required here. Not sure how to resolve this.
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